Unlock Season: Trading IMX, Aptos, and Cycle Network Ahead of Major Supply Releases
Title: Unlock Season: Trading IMX, Aptos, and Cycle Network Ahead of Major Supply Releases
Introduction Crypto markets are gearing up for a wave of supply shocks this week as Immutable X (IMX), Aptos (APT), and Cycle Network (CYC) release newly vested tokens. Immutable X unlocks 24.52 million IMX on August 8, 2025 (≈1.31% of circulating supply), Aptos releases 11.31 million APT on August 12, 2025 (≈0.97% of its total supply), and Cycle Network’s initial 152 million CYC hit exchanges on August 4, 2025. While such events often spark sharp price swings, the right on-chain data and risk models can turn volatility into a measurable edge.
Understanding Vesting Schedules: Cliff, Linear, and Back-Loaded • Cliff Vesting – Tokens unlock in a single tranche on a set date. Sudden supply shocks often follow, as seen in IMX’s ecosystem allocations and Aptos’s community tranches. • Linear Vesting – Gradual releases over time smooth pressure. Cycle Network’s investors vest linearly over 24–36 months after a 12-month cliff. • Back-Loaded Vesting – Small early unlocks give way to heavy later tranches, raising selling-pressure risks when large amounts finally vest. With these frameworks in mind, let’s examine how each project’s upcoming unlock affects supply and trading opportunities.
Token Unlocks: Supply Metrics & Timing Immutable X (IMX) • Unlock Date & Amount: August 8, 2025 – 24.52 million IMX (1.31% of circulating supply) • Mechanics: Cliff vesting for ecosystem development • Before Unlock: 1.89 billion circulating, 2 billion total
Aptos (APT) • Unlock Date & Amount: August 12, 2025 – 11.31 million APT (0.97% of total supply; ≈$54 million) • Mechanics: Cliff vesting on community and contributor allocations • Before Unlock: ~672.7 million circulating, infinite uncapped model
Cycle Network (CYC) • Unlock Date & Amount: August 4, 2025 – 152 million initial CYC (15.2% of total supply) • Mechanics: IDO, staking incentives, airdrop, and both cliff and linear vesting for various tranches • Total Supply: 1 billion CYC
Before diving into strategies, let’s look at historical unlocks to see how market reactions have differed.
Historical Case Studies: Why Unlock Outcomes Vary • dYdX (DYDX) April 2024 – $115.6 million unlocked; price rallied 25% after a buyback announcement channeled protocol fees into token demand. • Sui (SUI) August 1, 2025 – 44 million unlocked (≈1.27% of supply; $128 million); price fell 10% amid weak demand and high-velocity selling. Key takeaway: impact hinges on demand absorption, concurrent news catalysts, and recipients’ selling behavior.
Armed with these lessons, traders can structure their positions as follows.
Trading Strategies Ahead of Unlocks
- Momentum Plays • Long on breakouts above consolidation zones pre-unlock. • Confirm with volume spikes driven by on-chain unlock data.
- Delta-Neutral Hedging • Long spot, short perpetual futures to capture basis moves. • Monitor funding rates—rising negative rates may flag bearish sentiment.
- Options Strategies • Buy straddles/strangles to profit from volatility spikes. • Sell iron condors after unlocks when implied volatility remains high.
While trading strategies target short-term moves, long-term investors should frame unlocks differently.
Long-Term Holder Perspective: Buying the Dip? Post-unlock price dips can offer accumulation opportunities in strong projects. Evaluate: • Protocol Health Score – on-chain activity, developer commits, TVL growth (e.g., Aptos’s RWA segment topped $720 million TVL ahead of its unlock) • Treasury Runway – sufficient reserves and grant programs can buffer selling pressure • Market Sentiment – Fear & Greed metrics and overall risk-on/risk-off environment TokenVitals’ health analytics layer these indicators to highlight optimal long-term entry zones.
Conclusion Unlock season brings predictable supply surges but also repeatable trading and investment opportunities. By mastering vesting mechanics, monitoring on-chain supply dashboards, and applying disciplined strategies, you can navigate volatility with confidence—and turn potential supply shocks into a strategic edge.