RUNE Revival: Can THORChain’s Cross-Chain DEX Dominate the 2025 Bull?

Title: RUNE Revival: Can THORChain’s Cross-Chain DEX Dominate the 2025 Bull?

Introduction In the first half of 2025, THORChain’s native token RUNE quietly outpaced many blue-chip assets. While Bitcoin and Ethereum wrestled with volatility, THORChain shipped three major upgrades—streaming swaps, extended UTXO routing, and initial Monero support—that deepened cross-chain liquidity and refined the trading experience. With the upcoming SynthVaults engine and cross-chain lending markets on the horizon, RUNE is positioned for a potential breakout in this year’s bull run. We’ll examine: 1) protocol upgrades; 2) real-world volumes and TVL; 3) tokenomics and security versus Wormhole and Squid; and 4) price outlook scenarios under various catalysts.

1. Streaming Swaps: Deeper Cross-Chain Liquidity Launched in July 2023, streaming swaps slice large orders into multiple sub-swaps, minimizing slippage and liquidity fees—now as low as 5 basis points (bps) for whale-sized trades. Traders can choose time-optimized or price-optimized execution, bringing advanced TWAP functionality on-chain. Since activation, on-chain trading volume has surged: THORChain now handles up to 720,000 swaps daily versus just 1–2k pre-upgrade, capturing flow once confined to centralized venues.

2. Liquidity Ads: Improving Pool Depth Discovery Building on routing gains from streaming swaps, Liquidity Ads will let liquidity providers and node operators advertise available depth directly within user interfaces. This is designed to reduce fragmentation and streamline pathfinding. While official specs and a deployment window are pending, community roadmaps target a Q3 2025 rollout, promising further efficiency gains.

3. Bitcoin-to-Monero Routing: Privacy Coin Support THORChain’s expanded UTXO routing now includes Monero. Live GitLab repos for Monero TSS and wallet RPC—backed by audits from Inference and sponsorship from Cake Wallet—underline progress toward native XMR swaps. Once complete, users will enjoy private, trustless swaps across BTC, LTC, and XMR without centralized bridges.

4. SynthVaults Engine: Next-Generation Collateralized Assets Scheduled for late Q3, SynthVaults will let users mint synthetic assets against cross-chain collateral pools, generating yield via automated arbitrage and lending strategies. By integrating streaming swaps and upcoming lending markets, SynthVaults aims to offer APYs in the double digits, further locking in TVL and extending THORChain’s DeFi stack.

5. Remarkable Volume and TVL Growth Q1 2025 Highlights • USD-denominated volume: $19.62 billion; peak daily: $1.49 billion • USD liquidity: $329 million → $127 million (price-driven adjustment; see caveat) • RUNE-denominated TVL: +93.2 percent QoQ (82.2 million → 158.8 million RUNE) • Swap fees: $14.41 million Despite a 74.5 percent USD price decline, RUNE’s TVL surged—evidence of sustained LP conviction in the cross-chain model.

Q2 2025 Performance • USD volume: $10.4 billion; peak daily: $327.6 million • USD liquidity: $122 million → $180 million • Swap fees: $6.12 million; affiliate earnings: $4.6 million Lower fees (5 bps) and protocol refinements fueled a rebound in depth and steady volume, underscoring streaming swaps’ efficacy.

6. RUNE Tokenomics & Security Model vs. Wormhole and Squid THORChain (Nodes + Bond Model) • Validators bond ≥1.5× asset value in RUNE • 5 percent of system income burned each block; emissions cap reached Feb 2025 • Circulating supply grew just 3 percent in Q1

Wormhole (Guardian Set) • Max supply: 10 billion; 82 percent vesting over 4 years • 5.1 percent allocated to guardians across 30+ chains

Squid (Axelar-Secured Routing) • Lean design—no native token or custody • Security via Axelar’s PoS validators; multiple audits minimize risk

THORChain’s deflationary burns and bond-to-vault alignment tightly couple incentives for security and liquidity health.

7. Price Outlook & Scenarios With cross-chain lending slated for H2 and potential U.S. listings post–CLARITY Act, RUNE may follow three paths: • Base case: Retest $1.50 by year-end (driven by streaming swaps volume and SynthVaults yield). • Bull case: >$2.50 if lending markets launch smoothly and Monero routing goes live amid broad DeFi inflows. • Bear case: <$1 if macro headwinds persist or rollouts are delayed. TokenVitals’ on-chain risk metrics (bonded ratio, TVL velocity, active nodes) assign RUNE a moderate risk grade, signaling balanced risk/reward. A compliant U.S. exchange listing could unlock ~20 percent additional upside, pending regulatory milestones.

Conclusion THORChain’s H1 2025 renaissance stems from strategic protocol upgrades—streaming swaps, advanced UTXO routing, and soon SynthVaults—cementing its cross-chain DEX leadership. While Liquidity Ads and Monero routing await final rollouts, RUNE’s deflationary economics and robust security model distinguish it from Wormhole and Squid. Sustained momentum into late 2025 will hinge on timely feature launches, U.S. exchange access, and the roll-out of lending markets. For intermediate to advanced DeFi investors, RUNE represents a high-conviction play on seamless asset interoperability—one poised for significant upside in the coming bull cycle.