Bitcoin’s Broken October Streak — Trading the $107K Support Zone

Bitcoin’s Broken October Streak — Trading the $107K Support Zone

October finished red and Bitcoin is now trading in a tight band around six figures. Traders who took “Uptober” as a calendar certainty were surprised by a mid‑October air pocket and follow‑on profit‑taking that left BTC below early‑month highs and near obvious support around $107K. This note is structured into three analytical layers — macro, on‑chain, and technical — and closes with a rules‑based trader plan, an options playbook, and practical portfolio hygiene you can act on immediately.

Macro: rates, liquidity, and policy overhang

Macro remains the primary driver of short‑term crypto risk appetite. The mid‑October sell‑off coincided with a sudden risk‑off impulse tied to trade‑tension headlines and hawkish Fed signaling; that sequence pushed BTC from the low‑$120K range toward roughly $105K before a choppy rebound (see CoinDesk, Nov. 1, 2025). Interest‑rate expectations and liquidity remain the dominant regime variables: large ETF flow prints can amplify moves and quickly change the market’s available liquidity bucket (Investopedia, Nov. 4, 2025).

How this connects to on‑chain: ETF flows and exchange inflows operate as the bridge between macro headlines and actual supply available to the market. Treat macro events (Fed comments, tariffs, big ETF prints) as regime checks — they tell you whether to trust technical and on‑chain signals or to step back until the macro noise subsides.

On‑chain metrics and realized price bands

On‑chain indicators are mixed but remain critical context. Across Q3 into October, exchange reserves fell toward multi‑year lows as coins moved into custody and ETFs — a structural bullish input. At the same time, late‑October volatility reactivated a meaningful quantity of long‑held coins, creating spot selling pressure if buyers don’t absorb them (InvestmentNews/Bloomberg, Nov. 5, 2025).

Key on‑chain points to watch now:

• Exchange reserves: historically low earlier in October (supply‑tight), but short‑term spikes in inflows correlate with immediate price pressure.
• Reactivated long‑term coins: large withdrawals from long holders represent realized profits and can sustain downward pressure absent new demand.
• Realized price bands: clusters where cohorts bought act as liquidity magnets — use these bands for stop placement and to anticipate where sellers or buyers may reappear.

Given the mixed on‑chain picture (structural tightness vs short‑term reactivation), the next anchor is the technical structure detailed below.

Technical analysis: the $107K support area and cross‑asset breadth

Price structure: BTC traded in a narrow range near roughly $107K–$111.5K through late October before renewed weakness in early November. The $107K neighborhood is the lower edge of that short‑term consolidation and has repeatedly acted as a buyer zone on recent retests.

Why $107K matters and how to treat it:

• Short‑term technical level: $107K is the lower edge of the October range. Expect responsive buyers here on intraday retests; a clean daily close below $107K increases the chance of a larger drawdown.
• Structural invalidation: a clean daily or monthly close below ~$100K, particularly if accompanied by rising exchange inflows and sustained reactivation, is a stronger bearish invalidation that raises the odds of a deeper unwind toward longer‑term moving‑average or psychological supports.

Cross‑asset breadth: major tokens moved together through October’s flush‑and‑rebound pattern — ETH and SOL followed BTC’s mid‑month jolt and closed lower, while BNB held up better. If ETH, SOL, and BNB break structure alongside BTC, expect broader risk‑asset flows to accelerate and widen the move.

Practical technical checklist:

• Watch daily closes around $107K (short‑term) and $100K (structural).
• Track whether BTC reclaims and holds the $116–117K pivot — sustained reclaim reduces the odds of a deeper unwind.
• Use volatility bands (14‑day ATR) to size entries and avoid being taken out by intraday wick activity.

Rules‑based trader plan: sizing, invalidations, and signals

Map the technical triggers above to rules you can follow consistently.

Risk and sizing:

• Risk per trade: 0.5–1.5% of portfolio value for directional spot/futures; professional desks can use 0.25–1% depending on leverage and mandate.
• Volatility‑adjusted sizing: scale position size by recent volatility. Define: risk_budget (portfolio risk per trade), stop_distance (price distance in dollars to your stop), contract_value (per‑unit dollar value). Example sizing formula: position_size = risk_budget / stop_distance. If ATR (14) doubles vs the prior month, halve the notional or double stop_distance accordingly. Provide a worked example in your trading journal before executing live.

Invalidations (commit to these):

1. Bullish thesis invalidated: clean daily/monthly close below ~$100K with rising exchange inflows. Tighten risk or exit long exposure.
2. Short thesis invalidated: BTC sustains a reclaim and hold above $116–117K with improving on‑chain absorption (shrinking exchange reserves and net ETF inflows).

Signals to respect before scaling:

• ETF flow prints and large fund redemptions
• Sustained exchange reserve changes (multi‑day inflows/outflows)
• Large miner/whale transfers and notable reactivation events
• Futures open interest shifts and options skew movements

Options playbook: neutral and directional structures

Context: options open interest and institutional activity are elevated. Use defined‑risk structures when IV is rich.

Neutral (range/vol‑crush) setup:

• Short iron condor or iron butterfly with wings outside the expected move. Size conservatively (max risk ~0.5–1% portfolio per structure). Hedge gamma risk if price approaches the wings; set predefined escape rules.

Directional:

• Bullish: call debit spread (buy ATM call, sell higher strike) to keep defined risk and reduce vega exposure.
• Bearish: put debit spread or long puts for protection.

Sizing and risk control for options:

• Prefer defined‑risk spreads over naked exposures, especially if you’re not frequently managing positions.
• Use delta as a proxy for directional exposure (e.g., buying 0.30‑delta calls approximates 30% of the directional exposure of spot).
• Be mindful of expiries: neutral trades typically use nearer expiries within the expected range horizon; directional trades can use a longer window to give your thesis time to play out. Trim into heavy OI expiries to avoid getting caught on gamma squeeze days.

Portfolio hygiene: DCA calendars, risk limits, and news gating

Operational rules for allocators and concentrated token books:

• DCA schedule: split buys into 6–12 tranches tied to volatility (execute a tranche after each 1–2% ATR pullback rather than front‑loading before macro events).
• Risk limits: define per‑position and aggregate crypto drawdown limits (example: 5% of liquid net worth per trade; 15% aggregate crypto drawdown stop). If breached, rebalance to cash and reassess.
• News gating: build a short checklist of gating events (unexpected Fed policy pivots, large ETF redemptions, confirmed exchange hacks, major regulatory enforcement). If a gating event occurs, follow pre‑written steps (reduce leverage X%, add Y% put protection, pause new long entries).

Bottom line — operate systematically, not emotionally

October’s red print is a reminder that seasonality and narratives aren’t substitutes for risk management. The current regime — high options open interest, concentrated ETF flows, and on‑chain reactivation from long holders — creates fault lines that can amplify small headlines into sizable moves. Use a layered workflow: macro check → on‑chain confirmation → technical trigger → rules‑based sizing → clear invalidation. For options traders, prefer defined‑risk structures when implied volatility is elevated and size positions relative to realistic directional exposure. For portfolio managers, DCA with volatility‑sensitive tranches and pre‑defined news gates keeps you operational during headline storms.

If you want to operationalize these rules, TokenVitals can run a tailored risk dashboard for your notional and time horizon (realized price‑band heat maps, miner‑flow alerts, exchange‑reserve triggers, options‑Greeks monitor). Tell us your target exposure and time frame and we’ll sketch a personalized plan that automates the alerts and trade signals referenced above.