Bitcoin’s $105K Shakeout: TA Signals, Miner Flows & DCA Strategies
Title: Bitcoin’s $105K Shakeout: TA Signals, Miner Flows & DCA Strategies
Introduction Bitcoin’s swift 6% correction—sliding below the pivotal $105,000 mark to $104,713 on October 17, 2025—erased over $128 billion in market cap within hours, underscoring crypto markets’ hyper-volatility and leverage fragility. This jolt, reminiscent of past cascades but on a grander scale, was driven by forced derivatives liquidations, increased miner-to-exchange flows, and a confirmed death cross on key moving averages. In this deep dive, we first detail the liquidation dynamics and technical signals behind the drop, then examine on-chain miner behavior, before outlining disciplined entry strategies (including dollar-cost averaging) and concluding with looming macro catalysts—Federal Reserve rate pivots and spot-ETF approvals—that could steer Bitcoin’s next move.
- Derivatives Liquidations & Technical Analysis The tumble was exacerbated by a liquidation cascade: over $19.2 billion notional wiped out in 24 hours (CoinGlass), including $8.7 billion in BTC positions, as $115K and $110K support levels cracked, triggering mass margin calls. Realized losses, however, totaled roughly $2.31 billion on-chain, highlighting gaps between notional and actual liquidations.
Subheading: Confluence Zones Weekly URPD data pinpoints a trader cost-base cluster between $95K and $105K, forming a magnet for price during pullbacks. This zone now represents the next critical support band.
Technically, dropping below the 200-day MA—a level unbroken since spring—signifies potential regime change. The death cross on April 7, 2025 (50-day SMA crossing under 200-day SMA) further signals waning momentum and aligns with historical multi-month drawdowns.
- On-Chain Metrics & Miner Flows Next, we delve into miner behavior and broader on-chain health to see how supply dynamics influence the correction. Miner-exchange outflows have decoupled from price, with the 30-day correlation plunging to –0.157 on October 3, the weakest since March. The BTC.com pool, the main supplier to Binance, has sharply curtailed outflows since mid-2025—miners are holding, not selling.
Realized cap hit $1.05 trillion in September, reflecting deep long-term conviction. MVRV ratios (2.26 raw, 3.11 for LTHs) and a rising Pi Cycle Oscillator point to nascent momentum shifts, while Fear & Greed at 22 signals extreme contrarian buying zones.
- Disciplined Accumulation Tactics While these metrics guide the big picture, volatility rewards structured entry:
- DCA: A $10 weekly buy over five years turns $2,620 into $7,913 (202% return).
- Covered Calls: Selling IBIT calls can yield 39% annualized in 16 days; backtests show 10 BTC growing to 26.7 BTC over 3.4 years.
- Dynamic Rebalancing: A 15% BTC allocation, monthly rebalanced, delivered 17.96% annual return with a 1.36 Sharpe.
- Macro Catalysts: Fed Pivot & Spot-ETF Momentum Beyond tactics, macro factors will set the medium-term trend. Implied odds exceed 96% for a 25 bps Fed cut in October and 94% in December, while SEC’s streamlined ETF approval process and pending Solana/XRP ETF decisions (mid-October) may unleash fresh capital into BTC products.
Key Takeaways
• Forced liquidations drove the initial crash—realized losses were smaller than notional.
• Breach of the 200-day MA and death cross signal extended consolidation risk.
• Miner outflows have waned, indicating supply tightening.
• DCA, covered calls, and rebalancing offer structured approaches to volatility.
• Imminent Fed easing and spot-ETF approvals could catalyze the next leg up.
Conclusion Bitcoin’s $105K shakeout exemplifies crypto’s reflexivity: leverage amplifies moves, while miner conviction and sentiment extremes provide counter-trend cues. By melding technical and on-chain analytics with disciplined entry strategies—and positioning ahead of Fed cuts and ETF launches—investors can navigate volatility with data-driven conviction rather than panic.
(Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results.)